US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $778.57
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
70% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward earnings growth over the coming twelve months modeled at a central 9%, tapered down from the 32.4% consensus growth for calendar 2026 because revenue growth of 12.3% implies the balance came from margin expansion and the profit share of output is already at a record; plus about 1.1% dividend income, with buybacks captured inside per-share earnings growth; plus a multiple change from one quarter of the way toward the justified multiple implied by the median fair-value index of 96.0.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
A 5.2% starting forward earnings yield, sustainable earnings growth near 7% reflecting partial normalisation of the record profit share, dividend income near 1.1%, and a valuation drag of roughly 1.4 percentage points a year from converging toward the modeled justified multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled edge of 3.53 percentage points over one-year Treasury cash comes with a tenth-percentile outcome 15% below today's price, while the 4.47% one-year Treasury par yield is contractual; on this model the risk-taking premium over cash is thin by historical standards, which is the same message the record-low profits-yield-less-real-yield spread carries.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $778.57 | +8.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $516.11 | +8.0% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $751.27 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $603.33 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $278.94 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $213.04 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $54.73 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.25 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $170.81 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $112.85 | — |