Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 48.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.5
- Upside to median
- +0.5%
- Last close
- $86.03
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +17.5%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
75% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 2.87% dividend yield plus earnings growth haircut from the 17.3% implied in the trailing-to-forward multiple gap down to about 8%, plus a negligible contribution from valuation convergence given a median fair-value index of 100.5. The range reflects unhedged euro, sterling and franc exposure.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +4.5%
- P10
- +0.5%
A 7.0% starting forward earnings yield with a high payout ratio, plus modest real growth, with no valuation drag assumed because the median fair value sits essentially at market.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +4.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled edge of 4.53 percentage points over one-year Treasury cash, of which 2.87 points is current dividend income; the balance depends on earnings delivery and on the dollar not strengthening. It is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.