Energy
Today’s price sits at the 79.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 11% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.4
- Upside to median
- -10.6%
- Last close
- $148.20
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- -8.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
38% of modeled scenarios end positive.
The benchmark holds no cash-flow-bearing asset, so the one-year return is a crude price change plus roll yield. The price component follows the official forecast path, which has Brent falling from $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 to about $87 by the second quarter of 2027; the roll component is modeled as positive because global inventories fell 1.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2026 and are forecast to fall a further 0.7 million in the fourth, conditions historically associated with a backwardated curve. The range is the widest of the non-crypto asset classes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +5.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
The official path has Brent at an average $74 a barrel by the fourth quarter of 2027 as depleted inventories rebuild, with the majority of constrained regional production expected back to pre-conflict averages by mid-2027; beyond that horizon a mid-cycle price anchored on marginal cost is assumed, with roll yield turning less favourable as inventories normalise.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -12.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The widest negative modeled gap against one-year Treasury cash in the artifact: the official forecast path implies a falling crude price while one-year Treasury cash pays a contractual 4.47%. Holding crude here is a bet that regional supply constraints persist well beyond the agency's own assumptions.