China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.7
- Upside to median
- -6.3%
- Last close
- $52.55
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +23.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 2.43% dividend yield plus earnings growth haircut from the 28.4% implied in the trailing-to-forward multiple gap down to about 10%, less roughly 1.6 percentage points from a quarter of the way converging toward a median fair-value index of 93.7, with a further judgemental haircut for policy and governance uncertainty. The range is widened for the asset class's realised dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
A 9.85% starting forward earnings yield less expected dilution and value destruction in the lower-return half of the index, plus a rising dividend stream, with valuation convergence spread over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +4.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled edge of 4.53 percentage points over one-year Treasury cash alongside a tenth-percentile outcome 24% below today's price; the asset class carries the second-widest downside tail among the equity blocks, so the edge is thin relative to the uncertainty around it.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 93.7 | $52.55 | +9.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 93.7 | $34.24 | +9.0% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.93 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $43.88 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.17 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $32.38 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.06 | — |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.76 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.11 | — |