Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 46.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.2
- Upside to median
- +2.2%
- Last close
- $90.65
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
76% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A derived large-capitalisation distribution yield near 3.7%, plus cash-flow growth tapered down from the 14.8% funds-from-operations rate reported for the first quarter of 2026 toward the 2.8% median same-store net-operating-income growth of the second quarter, plus a small contribution from partial convergence toward a median fair-value index of 102.2. The range reflects the sector's high sensitivity to the long Treasury yield.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- 0.0%
Income yield plus same-store net-operating-income growth plus accretion from buying back shares below net asset value, with valuation convergence spread over three years. The range narrows because the income component dominates as the horizon lengthens.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled edge over one-year Treasury cash rests on a capitalisation-rate spread of roughly 256 basis points at the sector median against a 163 basis-point historical average; it is a modeled spread and would be erased by a further rise in the ten-year yield.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +0.2Fair | 102.2 | $90.65 | +8.0% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | +0.2Fair | 102.2 | $41.61 | +8.0% |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.69 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $87.84 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $29.18 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.49 | — |