Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 44.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $59.76
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +11.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
75% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 2.02% dividend yield plus earnings growth haircut from the 53% implied in the trailing-to-forward multiple gap down to about 10%, plus a small positive contribution from partial convergence toward a median fair-value index of 101.0. The range is widened for currency, index-concentration and governance risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- +4.5%
- P10
- -1.0%
A 10.3% starting forward earnings yield less expected real dilution, plus dividends, plus partial valuation convergence over three years. The three-year range narrows relative to one year because the starting earnings yield dominates as the horizon lengthens.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +6.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The widest modeled one-year edge over one-year Treasury cash in the artifact, but it rests on an unhedged dollar return from a concentrated index and on delivering roughly a tenth of the earnings growth consensus currently projects; it is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $59.76 | +11.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $99.02 | +11.0% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $114.31 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $177.24 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.03 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $43.54 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.80 | — |