Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.7
- Upside to median
- -7.3%
- Last close
- $46.55
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +72.0%
- P75
- +34.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
The asset pays no cash flow, so the one-year return is pure price change: partial convergence toward a median fair-value index of 92.7 offset by an adoption drift term. The range is set from the asset's own realised volatility regime, which has included a drawdown of more than half within the past year, and is the widest in the artifact by design.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +42.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
Low post-halving issuance relative to circulating supply plus continued adoption, against the opportunity cost of a 4.47% cash rate compounding over three years. The three-year range remains very wide because no cash-flow anchor narrows it.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median falls short of the 4.47% one-year Treasury par yield while the tenth-percentile outcome is 48% below today's price, so on this model one-year Treasury cash offers a competitive expected return with far lower uncertainty.