Valuation Lens — October 8, 2026

Treasury yields near decade highs leave most asset classes priced above modeled economic value, with broad bonds and crypto the two near-fair exceptions.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 8, 2026Last market session Oct 8, 2026Data cutoff Oct 8, 2026, 7:50 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.44%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.44% sets today's annual investment-basis hurdle, while the 10-year nominal and real yields of 5.22% and 2.87% sit in the top 1% of their last ten years and raise the discount rate applied to every long-duration asset.

10y Treasury: 5.2%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

CryptoBTC-USD
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
102.075.1–112.1
Upside to median
+2.0%
1y modeled
+3.0%-55.0% to 94.0%
vs Treasury
-1.4%
Fixed IncomeBND
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
99.697.2–103.2
Upside to median
-0.4%
1y modeled
+5.3%-3.0% to 13.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.882.9–105.6
Upside to median
-5.2%
1y modeled
+6.0%-26.0% to 34.0%
vs Treasury
+1.6%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
92.387.3–99.8
Upside to median
-7.7%
1y modeled
+6.5%-13.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+2.1%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
90.681.5–99.3
Upside to median
-9.4%
1y modeled
+6.5%-19.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
+2.1%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
90.282.4–98.9
Upside to median
-9.8%
1y modeled
+5.5%-15.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
EnergyUSO
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
83.575.5–97.5
Upside to median
-16.5%
1y modeled
-8.0%-38.0% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
-12.4%
Real EstateVNQ
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
91.487.3–98.7
Upside to median
-8.6%
1y modeled
+5.0%-14.0% to 19.0%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
MetalsGLD
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
84.976.2–98.0
Upside to median
-15.1%
1y modeled
0.0%-24.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
-4.4%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
89.285.0–97.7
Upside to median
-10.8%
1y modeled
+5.0%-17.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.3
Exceptionally expensive
Median fair value
87.682.8–94.9
Upside to median
-12.4%
1y modeled
+3.5%-13.0% to 16.5%
vs Treasury
-0.9%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-08, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.1 Fair	102.0 75.1–112.1	+2.0%	+3.0% -55.0% to 94.0%	-1.4%
Fixed Income BND	-0.2 Fair	99.6 97.2–103.2	-0.4%	+5.3% -3.0% to 13.0%	+0.9%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	94.8 82.9–105.6	-5.2%	+6.0% -26.0% to 34.0%	+1.6%
Europe Equities VGK	-1.5 Expensive	92.3 87.3–99.8	-7.7%	+6.5% -13.0% to 22.0%	+2.1%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-1.6 Expensive	90.6 81.5–99.3	-9.4%	+6.5% -19.0% to 27.0%	+2.1%
US Equities SPY	-1.7 Expensive	90.2 82.4–98.9	-9.8%	+5.5% -15.0% to 23.0%	+1.1%
Energy USO	-1.7 Expensive	83.5 75.5–97.5	-16.5%	-8.0% -38.0% to 30.0%	-12.4%
Real Estate VNQ	-1.7 Expensive	91.4 87.3–98.7	-8.6%	+5.0% -14.0% to 19.0%	+0.6%
Metals GLD	-1.7 Expensive	84.9 76.2–98.0	-15.1%	0.0% -24.0% to 22.0%	-4.4%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.8 Expensive	89.2 85.0–97.7	-10.8%	+5.0% -17.0% to 22.0%	+0.6%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.3 Exceptionally expensive	87.6 82.8–94.9	-12.4%	+3.5% -13.0% to 16.5%	-0.9%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 48.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 30–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 62.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 30–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 50%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 75.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 80%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 76.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 67%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 77.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 30–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 33%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 53%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 30–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 40%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 80.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 69%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.3Exceptionally expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 87.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 13% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 46%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources21

1
Stock Market Valuation — S&P 500
StreetStats Research
2
Highest Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio For the S&P 500 in More Than 5 Years
FactSet Research Systems
3
iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJ
BlackRock iShares
4
iShares MSCI China ETF | MCHI
BlackRock iShares
5
iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWA
BlackRock iShares
6
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | LQD
BlackRock iShares
7
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | HYG
BlackRock iShares
8
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | TLT
BlackRock iShares
9
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | IEF
BlackRock iShares
10
iShares TIPS Bond ETF | TIP
BlackRock iShares
11
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) — Fund Statistics
StockAnalysis
12
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) — Fund Statistics
StockAnalysis
13
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Fund Statistics
StockAnalysis
14
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) — Fund Statistics
StockAnalysis
15
Short-Term Energy Outlook — Global oil markets
U.S. Energy Information Administration
16
Brent oil — Price, Chart, Historical Data and cross-commodity quote board
Trading Economics
17
Crypto Currencies — Live Exchange Rate Price Quote Data
Trading Economics
18
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
World Gold Council
19
2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth
Nareit
20
The State of REITs: September 2026 Edition
2nd Market Capital Advisory
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Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026
Amberdata

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: vl-2026-10-08-001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.