Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 87.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 13% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 87.6
- Upside to median
- -12.4%
- Last close
- $28.23
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +16.5%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Combines a 4% one-year earnings roll, which reflects the low structural growth of a banking- and mining-dominated market, the verified 3.89% thirty-day yield and a one-fifth drift toward the modeled fair-value median. Currency is held neutral.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.5%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -4.5%
Three-year model projecting a 4% earnings compound growth rate, a 3.9% income yield and roughly a 40% convergence toward the modeled fair-value median. The high income yield keeps the central estimate positive despite the largest modeled valuation gap among the equity regions.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- -0.9%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled central case falls roughly nine tenths of a percentage point short of the 4.44% one-year Treasury par yield, and the benchmark's own 3.89% income yield is below it. Stated plainly, a risk-free holding currently offers both a higher central return and a higher income yield than this asset class, with none of the equity, currency or commodity risk. The comparison is a proxy because one of three constituent markets anchors the asset class.