Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 48.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 30–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $46.26
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +94.0%
- P75
- +44.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -30.0%
- P10
- -55.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No contractual cash flow exists, so the modeled return is the sum of a partial drift toward the modeled fair-value median and a structural adoption and issuance-scarcity drift, with no income component. The dispersion is set from the asset class's own realised volatility regime and is deliberately the widest in this analysis.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +36.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
Three-year path combining a slower drift toward the modeled fair-value median with issuance decay of roughly 0.8% a year and a conservative adoption trajectory; no mean-reversion to prior cycle peaks is assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median falls short of the 4.44% one-year Treasury par yield, so a risk-free holding currently offers a higher central return with vastly lower uncertainty. The comparison is a proxy because the asset class has no contractual cash flow and the available outcome history is too short for a like-for-like total-return comparison.