US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.2
- Upside to median
- -9.8%
- Last close
- $773.93
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Decomposes return into the forward-earnings roll, the dividend yield and valuation change. The 17.7% consensus one-year growth estimate is haircut to a 7% roll in forward earnings, reflecting the historical tendency of consensus growth to overshoot; a one-fifth drift toward the modeled fair-value median contributes a 2.0% multiple drag, and a 1.05% dividend yield is added. Net repurchases are excluded because they are already captured in per-share earnings growth.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year model using a 7% nominal earnings compound growth rate, roughly 4.5% real plus expected inflation, rather than the 9.53% real five-year rate implied by consensus; a 45% convergence toward the modeled fair-value median spread over three years; and a 1.05% dividend yield. Partial rather than full normalisation of the aggregate capitalisation measures is assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled edge of roughly 1.1 percentage points over the 4.44% one-year Treasury par yield is thin compensation for a 38 percentage point modeled tenth-to-ninetieth percentile return range. Stated plainly, a one-year Treasury currently offers a competitive central return with materially lower uncertainty than the broad US equity market.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.7Expensive | 90.2 | $773.93 | +5.5% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $747.58 | — |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $511.65 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $211.87 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $277.57 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $607.27 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $54.23 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.40 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.16 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $111.71 | — |