China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 62.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 30–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 94.8
- Upside to median
- -5.2%
- Last close
- $51.36
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Combines an 8% one-year earnings roll, a 2.0% cash distribution yield and a one-fifth drift toward the modeled fair-value median, then applies a substantial haircut for earnings-delivery risk. The distribution is deliberately the widest of the equity asset classes, reflecting a three-year realised volatility of 20.8%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Three-year model projecting a 7% earnings compound growth rate, a 2.1% distribution yield and a gradual convergence of roughly half the gap to the modeled fair-value median; no re-rating back to pre-2021 multiples is assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median exceeds the 4.44% one-year Treasury par yield by about 1.6 percentage points, but the modeled tenth-to-ninetieth percentile range spans 60 percentage points. On a per-unit-of-uncertainty basis a risk-free holding is competitive, and the comparison is a proxy because the asset class is represented by a single broad fund rather than by a security-level total-return series.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 94.8 | $51.36 | +6.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.45 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.02 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $43.07 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.70 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $32.14 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $21.72 | — |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.92 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.14 | — |