Energy
Today’s price sits at the 78.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 30–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 83.5
- Upside to median
- -16.5%
- Last close
- $147.58
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- -8.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
39% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blends the three sleeves of the asset class. Crude exposure follows the authoritative forward path, which has the benchmark grade falling from roughly 104 today toward an 87 average by the second quarter of 2027 and a 74 average by the fourth quarter; producer equities are valued on a mid-cycle deck and modeled near flat with their dividend yield; natural gas is modeled modestly higher. The wide right tail reflects the demonstrated potential for renewed escalation, which took the benchmark grade to 131 on 15 September 2026.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Over three years the official path has the benchmark grade averaging 84 in 2027 against 96 in 2026, implying roughly a 7% annualised decline for crude exposure; producer equities contribute a modest positive and natural gas a mid-single-digit positive, giving a slightly negative blended annualised median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- -12.4%
- Basis
- proxy
This is the widest negative modeled edge in the report: the central case falls roughly 12.4 percentage points short of the 4.44% one-year Treasury par yield, because the authoritative forward price path has crude declining materially from today's conflict-inflated level. A risk-free holding offers a clearly superior central return with far lower uncertainty. The comparison is a proxy because the asset class mixes front-month commodity exposure with producer equities.