Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 80.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.2
- Upside to median
- -10.8%
- Last close
- $97.32
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -17.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Combines a 7% one-year earnings roll, an assumed 2.0% index dividend yield and a one-fifth drift toward the modeled fair-value median, with a haircut for consensus optimism. The income assumption is disclosed because the fund's 1.09% thirty-day yield and 3.66% trailing yield bracket the recurring level and the trailing figure is distorted by an outsized one-off distribution. Currency is held neutral.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Three-year model projecting a 6.5% earnings compound growth rate, a 2.0% dividend yield and roughly a 45% convergence toward the modeled fair-value median. The governance-reform re-rating is assumed to persist rather than reverse, but not to extend further.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled edge of roughly six tenths of a percentage point over the 4.44% one-year Treasury par yield is negligible compensation for a 39 percentage point modeled tenth-to-ninetieth percentile range plus unhedged currency risk. The comparison is a proxy because no Japanese sovereign curve was supplied and returns are unhedged in US dollar terms.