Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 78.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.4
- Upside to median
- -8.6%
- Last close
- $89.35
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Combines 5% growth in adjusted funds from operations, the verified 3.81% distribution yield and a one-fifth drift toward the modeled fair-value median, with a haircut for the refinancing burden facing property balance sheets at a 5.22% ten-year yield.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.8%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year model projecting 5% compound growth in adjusted funds from operations against a sector forecast closer to 6.5%, a 3.8% distribution yield and roughly a 40% convergence toward the modeled fair-value median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled edge of roughly six tenths of a percentage point over the 4.44% one-year Treasury par yield is negligible compensation for property-cycle, leverage and refinancing risk. The benchmark's 3.81% distribution yield is itself 63 basis points below the one-year Treasury, so the income case does not clear the risk-free hurdle. The comparison is a proxy because the asset class is represented by a single listed fund rather than by direct property returns.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.7Expensive | 91.4 | $89.35 | +5.0% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.85 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $86.93 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.26 | — |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.51 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.56 | — |