Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.6
- Upside to median
- -9.4%
- Last close
- $59.10
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -19.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Combines a 9% one-year earnings roll driven largely by the semiconductor constituents, the verified 2.06% dividend yield and a one-fifth drift toward the modeled fair-value median, with a haircut for consensus optimism. Currency is held neutral.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -4.5%
Three-year model projecting an 8% earnings compound growth rate, a 2.1% dividend yield and roughly a 40% convergence toward the modeled fair-value median; no reversion to the asset class's pre-2024 lower multiple is assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled one-year median exceeds the 4.44% one-year Treasury par yield by 2.1 percentage points, the joint widest edge in the report, but it is earned across a 46 percentage point modeled tenth-to-ninetieth percentile range. The comparison is a proxy because the asset class is represented by a single unhedged broad fund.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.6Expensive | 90.6 | $59.10 | +6.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $98.22 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $113.34 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $176.29 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $45.56 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $42.59 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $62.66 | — |