Metals
Today’s price sits at the 78.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 30–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 84.9
- Upside to median
- -15.1%
- Last close
- $378.62
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- 0.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
50% of modeled scenarios end positive.
The precious-metal sleeves have no cash flow, so their modeled return is a roughly one-quarter drift toward the modeled fair-value median offset by nominal drift in the fair-value anchor itself. Mining equities contribute a small positive through dividends and free cash flow at prevailing prices. The blended median is approximately flat.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
Over three years the structural official-sector bid is assumed to continue lifting the fair-value anchor at roughly the pace of nominal output growth, which offsets most of the convergence drag; mining equities add a modest positive.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- -4.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The modeled central case of roughly zero falls about 4.4 percentage points short of the 4.44% one-year Treasury par yield. A non-cash-flow store of value competes directly against a 2.87% ten-year real yield near the top of its twenty-year range, and on that comparison a risk-free holding is plainly superior on central expectation. The comparison is a proxy because the asset class generates no contractual income.