Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 75.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.3
- Upside to median
- -7.7%
- Last close
- $85.43
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
70% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Combines a 7% one-year earnings roll, the verified 3.02% dividend yield and a one-fifth drift toward the modeled fair-value median, with a haircut for consensus optimism. Currency is held neutral because exchange-rate direction is a regime question rather than a valuation input.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -1.0%
Three-year model projecting a 6.5% earnings compound growth rate, a 3.0% dividend yield and roughly a 45% convergence toward the modeled fair-value median. The high dividend yield makes this asset class's three-year distribution the tightest of the equity regions.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- proxy
At 2.1 percentage points this is the widest modeled edge over the 4.44% one-year Treasury par yield in the report, and most of it is delivered as a 3.02% contractual-looking dividend yield rather than as hoped-for multiple expansion. The comparison is a proxy because returns are unhedged in US dollar terms and no euro-area risk-free curve was supplied.