Valuation Lens — October 7, 2026

With the 10-year Treasury par yield at 5.28% and the 10-year real yield at 2.92% near 20-year highs, China & Hong Kong Equities is the cheapest asset class at a median fair-value index of 106.8 while Developed Pacific Equities is the most expensive at 89.3; no asset class clears the calibrated Treasury-beat publication gate in this run.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 7, 2026Last market session Oct 7, 2026Data cutoff Oct 7, 2026, 7:05 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.42%1y Treasury

The 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield is the investment-basis annual hurdle, and with the 10-year nominal at 5.28% and the 10-year real at 2.92% near 20-year highs the risk-free alternative is competitive with most modeled equity and credit returns.

10y Treasury: 5.3%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
106.893.8–120.2
Upside to median
+6.8%
1y modeled
+9.5%-24.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
+5.1%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.293.6–116.3
Upside to median
+5.2%
1y modeled
+8.5%-21.0% to 33.0%
vs Treasury
+4.1%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.296.8–103.4
Upside to median
+0.2%
1y modeled
+5.4%-3.5% to 12.5%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.1
Fair
Median fair value
99.491.4–108.1
Upside to median
-0.6%
1y modeled
+7.0%-16.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+2.6%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.3
Fair
Median fair value
97.481.9–113.2
Upside to median
-2.6%
1y modeled
+6.0%-48.0% to 78.0%
vs Treasury
+1.6%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
98.692.5–104.6
Upside to median
-1.4%
1y modeled
+6.5%-20.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+2.1%
MetalsGLD
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.784.7–108.0
Upside to median
-3.3%
1y modeled
+4.0%-26.0% to 33.0%
vs Treasury
-0.4%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.388.3–104.5
Upside to median
-3.7%
1y modeled
+6.0%-17.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+1.6%
EnergyUSO
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
89.580.3–99.9
Upside to median
-10.5%
1y modeled
0.0%-33.0% to 32.0%
vs Treasury
-4.4%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
91.083.9–97.9
Upside to median
-9.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-19.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
89.382.3–96.8
Upside to median
-10.7%
1y modeled
+5.0%-17.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+0.6%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-07, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	106.8 93.8–120.2	+6.8%	+9.5% -24.0% to 38.0%	+5.1%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	105.2 93.6–116.3	+5.2%	+8.5% -21.0% to 33.0%	+4.1%
Fixed Income BND	+0.1 Fair	100.2 96.8–103.4	+0.2%	+5.4% -3.5% to 12.5%	+1.0%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.1 Fair	99.4 91.4–108.1	-0.6%	+7.0% -16.0% to 26.0%	+2.6%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.3 Fair	97.4 81.9–113.2	-2.6%	+6.0% -48.0% to 78.0%	+1.6%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	98.6 92.5–104.6	-1.4%	+6.5% -20.0% to 28.0%	+2.1%
Metals GLD	-0.5 Somewhat expensive	96.7 84.7–108.0	-3.3%	+4.0% -26.0% to 33.0%	-0.4%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.7 Somewhat expensive	96.3 88.3–104.5	-3.7%	+6.0% -17.0% to 26.0%	+1.6%
Energy USO	-1.5 Expensive	89.5 80.3–99.9	-10.5%	0.0% -33.0% to 32.0%	-4.4%
US Equities SPY	-1.9 Expensive	91.0 83.9–97.9	-9.0%	+5.5% -19.0% to 26.0%	+1.1%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.0 Expensive	89.3 82.3–96.8	-10.7%	+5.0% -17.0% to 23.0%	+0.6%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 36.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 50%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 67%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 48.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 80%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 54.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 20–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 56.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 53%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-0.5Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 57.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.7Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 62.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 69%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 75.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 43%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 85%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources16

1
Earnings Insight
FactSet Research Systems
2
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Energy Information Administration
3
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
4
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
5
Gold price and historical data
Trading Economics
6
Brent crude oil price and historical data
Trading Economics
7
WTI crude oil price and historical data
Trading Economics
8
Copper price and historical data
Trading Economics
9
iShares MSCI China ETF fund profile
BlackRock
10
STOXX Europe 600 index page
STOXX
11
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Outlook
World Gold Council
12
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker
Nareit
13
Gold Is Forecast to Climb as Central Banks Buy the Precious Metal
Goldman Sachs Research
14
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio
GuruFocus
15
Bitcoin realized price and MVRV
Glassnode
16
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF fund profile
BlackRock

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_vl_20261007_261007001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.