Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 38.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 105.2
- Upside to median
- +5.2%
- Last close
- $59.85
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +21.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -21.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of forward EPS growth, a 2.8% dividend yield and partial multiple re-rating toward the ten-year average, with wide tails for the semiconductor cycle and the dollar.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year annualized decomposition of roughly 9% EPS growth, 2.8% dividends and mild positive multiple convergence from a discounted starting point.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +4.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median of 8.5% against the 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield, an investment-basis hurdle. The 4.22% one-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis and is not a holding-period compound return. The spread is a modeled expectation, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 105.2 | $100.48 | +8.5% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 105.2 | $116.24 | +8.5% |
| EWY South Korea Index | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 105.2 | $183.69 | +8.5% |
| EWZ Brazil Index | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 105.2 | $42.37 | +8.5% |
| EZA South Africa Index | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 105.2 | $62.29 | +8.5% |
| INDA India Index | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 105.2 | $46.11 | +8.5% |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 105.2 | $59.85 | +8.5% |