Metals
Today’s price sits at the 57.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 96.7
- Upside to median
- -3.3%
- Last close
- $375.88
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario-weighted metal price path blending the official-sector demand model, the regime-shifted real-yield relationship and supply-cost anchors, with no carry or income contribution for the physical sub-segments.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -10.0%
Three-year annualized path converging partially on the regime-shifted real-yield and supply-cost anchors, with industrial-metal deficits supporting the base-metal sub-segment.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- -0.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median of 4.0% against the 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield, an investment-basis hurdle, so the risk-free alternative edges out the modeled central case with far less uncertainty. The 4.22% one-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis and is not a holding-period compound return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPER Copper | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $39.81 | +4.0% |
| DBB Base Metals | +1.3Cheap | 110.0 | $25.12 | +4.0% |
| GDX Gold Miners | +1.8Cheap | 115.0 | $85.46 | +4.0% |
| GLD Gold | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 96.7 | $375.88 | +4.0% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | +1.6Cheap | 113.0 | $59.67 | +4.0% |
| PPLT Platinum | +1.5Cheap | 112.0 | $14.78 | +4.0% |
| SLV Silver | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $53.82 | +4.0% |