Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 62.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.3
- Upside to median
- -3.7%
- Last close
- $98.32
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of forward EPS growth, roughly 3.4% shareholder cash return and partial multiple convergence toward a governance-adjusted 15.5x, with unhedged currency widening both tails.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year annualized decomposition of roughly 7% EPS growth, 3.4% shareholder cash return and modest negative multiple drift.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median of 6.0% against the 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield, an investment-basis hurdle. The 4.22% one-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis and is not a holding-period compound return. The spread is a modeled expectation, not a guaranteed excess return.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXJ Japan Hedged Equity | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | $182.00 | +6.0% |
| EWJ Japan Broad Market | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | $98.32 | +6.0% |
| EWJV Japan Value Equity | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | $48.17 | +6.0% |
| JPXN Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | $104.58 | +6.0% |
| SCJ Japan Small-Cap Equity | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | $110.19 | +6.0% |