US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 81.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- Last close
- $777.22
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -19.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total-return decomposition: haircut forward EPS growth plus about 1.1% dividend yield plus partial convergence of the 19.0x forward multiple toward the 16.5x discount-rate-justified level, with a widened left tail for real-yield and margin shocks.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Three-year annualized decomposition of about 8% sustainable EPS growth, about 1.1% dividend yield and roughly -3.1% per year of multiple convergence toward a rate-adjusted 17.3x.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median of 5.5% against the 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield, an investment-basis hurdle. The 4.22% one-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis and is not a holding-period compound return. The spread is a modeled expectation, not a guaranteed excess return.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.9Expensive | 91.0 | $511.02 | +5.5% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -1.9Expensive | 91.0 | $277.70 | +5.5% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -1.9Expensive | 91.0 | $757.73 | +5.5% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -1.9Expensive | 91.0 | $210.60 | +5.5% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -1.9Expensive | 91.0 | $625.03 | +5.5% |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.9Expensive | 91.0 | $777.22 | +5.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | -1.9Expensive | 91.0 | $53.75 | +5.5% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -1.9Expensive | 91.0 | $167.84 | +5.5% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | -1.9Expensive | 91.0 | $168.81 | +5.5% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -1.9Expensive | 91.0 | $111.36 | +5.5% |