Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 82.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.3
- Upside to median
- -10.7%
- Last close
- $28.23
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -17.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of mid-single-digit EPS growth, a 3.9% dividend yield and negative multiple convergence from an 18.1x starting point toward a 16.2x justified level.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -5.5%
Three-year annualized decomposition of roughly 5.5% EPS growth, 3.9% dividends and roughly -3.5% per year of multiple convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median of 5.0% against the 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield, an investment-basis hurdle. The 4.22% one-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis and is not a holding-period compound return. The spread is a modeled expectation, not a guaranteed excess return, and at 0.58pp it is the thinnest positive edge in the equity coverage set.