Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 54.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.4
- Upside to median
- -2.6%
- Last close
- $47.21
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +78.0%
- P75
- +42.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario-weighted path across market-value-to-realized-value reversion, issuance scarcity, adoption and opportunity-cost anchors, with deliberately very wide tails reflecting the absence of a contractual cash-flow anchor.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +36.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
Three-year annualized path blending issuance scarcity and adoption anchors against opportunity cost, with wide tails and low confidence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median of 6.0% against the 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield, an investment-basis hurdle. The modeled edge of 1.58pp comes with the widest return distribution in the coverage set, so the risk-free alternative delivers a comparable central return with vastly lower uncertainty. The 4.22% one-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis and is not a holding-period compound return.