Energy
Today’s price sits at the 75.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.5
- Upside to median
- -10.5%
- Last close
- $143.91
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- 0.0%
- P25
- -16.0%
- P10
- -33.0%
50% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario-weighted crude price path from the official 2027 forecast and the marginal-cost and real-price anchors, net of estimated front-month roll yield, with wide two-sided tails for supply disruption and demand weakness.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +0.5%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
Three-year annualized path converging on the mid-cycle real price and marginal cost anchors, net of estimated roll costs.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- -4.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median of 0.0% against the 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield, an investment-basis hurdle. This is the only asset class in the coverage set where the risk-free alternative offers a higher modeled return with materially lower uncertainty. The 4.22% one-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis and is not a holding-period compound return.