Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 56.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.6
- Upside to median
- -1.4%
- Last close
- $88.69
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of roughly 3.5% AFFO per share growth, a 4.2% distribution yield and cap-rate-driven multiple change, with a widened left tail for refinancing and long-rate shocks.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year annualized decomposition of AFFO growth, distributions and partial convergence of the net-asset-value discount at a stable cap-rate spread.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median of 6.5% against the 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield, an investment-basis hurdle. The 4.22% one-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis and is not a holding-period compound return. The spread is a modeled expectation, not a guaranteed excess return.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.6 | $25.40 | +6.5% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | -1.9Expensive | 92.0 | $17.34 | +6.5% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $86.05 | +6.5% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | -1.3Expensive | 95.0 | $28.72 | +6.5% |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.6 | $88.69 | +6.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.6 | $40.57 | +6.5% |