China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 36.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 64% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 106.8
- Upside to median
- +6.8%
- Last close
- $51.64
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of forward earnings growth, an about 2.2% distribution yield and partial multiple re-rating toward the ten-year median, with a wide two-sided tail for policy and geopolitical outcomes.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Three-year annualized decomposition of roughly 10% earnings growth, 2.4% distributions and modest positive multiple convergence from a de-rated starting point.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +5.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median of 9.5% against the 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield, an investment-basis hurdle. The 4.22% one-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis and is not a holding-period compound return. The spread is a modeled expectation, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | $24.64 | +9.5% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | $4.09 | +9.5% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | $32.45 | +9.5% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | $15.76 | +9.5% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | $44.44 | +9.5% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | $21.58 | +9.5% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | $33.42 | +9.5% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | $24.33 | +9.5% |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 106.8 | $51.64 | +9.5% |