Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.4
- Upside to median
- -0.6%
- Last close
- $85.56
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario decomposition of mid-single-digit EPS growth, roughly 4.7% shareholder cash return and modest negative multiple drift from a 14.2x starting point.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Three-year annualized decomposition of roughly 6% EPS growth, 4.7% shareholder cash return and mild negative multiple convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.42%
- Modeled excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median of 7.0% against the 4.42% one-year Treasury par yield, an investment-basis hurdle. The 4.22% one-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis and is not a holding-period compound return. The spread is a modeled expectation, not a guaranteed excess return.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWG Germany Index | -0.1Fair | 99.4 | $40.91 | +7.0% |
| EWL Switzerland Index | -0.1Fair | 99.4 | $59.39 | +7.0% |
| EWQ France Index | -0.1Fair | 99.4 | $41.34 | +7.0% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | -0.1Fair | 99.4 | $45.93 | +7.0% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -0.1Fair | 99.4 | $65.90 | +7.0% |
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -0.1Fair | 99.4 | $85.56 | +7.0% |