Valuation Lens — October 5, 2026
A 5.26% 10-year Treasury and a 2.91% 10-year real yield are the binding valuation constraint across every asset class: high-grade fixed income is the only group whose modelled fair-value distribution is centred at or above today's market price, while US, European, Japanese, emerging-market and Developed Pacific equities and listed real estate all carry majority scenario mass below market.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
Cash-like Treasuries pay 4.07%-4.58% on an investment basis while the 10-year sits at 5.26% with a 2.91% real yield, the highest real discount rate in roughly two decades and the dominant constraint on every long-duration valuation in this report.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.3%
- 10y real
- 2.9%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.998.3–103.3
- Upside to median
- +0.9%
- 1y modeled
- +5.9%-1.5% to 11.8%
- vs Treasury
- +1.3%
- -0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 97.790.3–111.6
- Upside to median
- -2.3%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-24.0% to 34.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.9%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 94.972.9–105.9
- Upside to median
- -5.1%
- 1y modeled
- +2.0%-48.0% to 68.0%
- vs Treasury
- -2.6%
- MetalsGLD-0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.384.4–104.6
- Upside to median
- -6.7%
- 1y modeled
- +0.5%-22.0% to 21.0%
- vs Treasury
- -4.1%
- US EquitiesSPY-0.8Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.786.7–102.6
- Upside to median
- -8.3%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-13.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- EnergyUSO-1.0Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.684.3–105.5
- Upside to median
- -9.4%
- 1y modeled
- -4.0%-34.0% to 29.0%
- vs Treasury
- -8.6%
- -1.0Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 88.079.8–101.5
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-19.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.4%
- -1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 94.188.4–105.2
- Upside to median
- -5.9%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-14.0% to 23.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- -1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.085.8–102.9
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-16.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- Real EstateVNQ-1.2Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.885.6–102.2
- Upside to median
- -7.2%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-16.0% to 24.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
- -1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.085.9–98.7
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-14.5% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.4%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 44.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 54.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–130 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 61.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 63.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 66.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–130 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 70.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Sources25
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13
- 14
- 15
- 16
- 17Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates, 2026U.S. Department of the Treasury
- 18
- 19
- 20
- 21
- 22
- 23
- 24
- 25
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- vl_20261005_261005001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.