Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–130 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 94.1
- Upside to median
- -5.9%
- Last close
- $86.28
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.5%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield of roughly 3.9%, combining the observed 2.59% trailing distribution yield with an estimated 1.3% buyback contribution, plus about 5% nominal earnings growth, less roughly 1.5 percentage points from partial convergence toward the modelled median fair-value index of 94.1. Held at 6.0% rather than the 7.4% mechanical figure in deference to Vanguard's 4.5%-6.5% VCMM 10-year developed-markets-ex-US range and to the fact that the eurozone multiple is high against its own history. Dispersion includes the currency exposure a US-dollar investor carries. No calibrated probability is published.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Shareholder yield of about 3.9% plus a 4.5% three-year nominal earnings path, less roughly 1.2 percentage points a year from amortising the fair-value gap. The income component is the largest contributor and the most reliable part of the estimate, which is why the three-year distribution is narrower than the one-year one.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual edge of roughly 1.4 percentage points over the one-year Treasury, with an unusually high share of it coming from the observed 2.59% distribution yield rather than from projected growth or multiple expansion.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 94.1 | $86.28 | +6.0% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 94.1 | $66.79 | +6.0% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.19 | — |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $59.26 | — |
| EWG Germany Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.25 | — |
| EWQ France Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.79 | — |