Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $99.30
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -16.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield of roughly 3.5%, built from a normalised 2.0% dividend yield plus an estimated 1.5% buyback contribution rather than from the distorted 3.66% trailing figure, plus about 6.5% nominal earnings growth from reflation and buyback accretion, less roughly 2.5 percentage points from partial convergence toward the modelled median fair-value index of 90.0. Dispersion combines the benchmark's 13.26% three-year standard deviation with the unhedged currency exposure a US-dollar investor carries. No calibrated probability is published.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.5%
Shareholder yield of about 3.5% plus a 5.5% three-year nominal earnings path, less roughly 3 percentage points a year from amortising the fair-value gap. Held near Vanguard's 4.5%-6.5% VCMM 10-year developed-markets-ex-US range, which is used only as an unconditional prior.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual edge of roughly 1.4 percentage points over the one-year Treasury, carrying both Japanese equity risk and unhedged yen exposure. The currency risk is genuinely two-sided here: a yen recovery would lift US-dollar returns while compressing exporter earnings.