Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $28.43
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -14.5%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield of roughly 4.4%, built from the observed 3.89% 30-day SEC yield plus a modest buyback contribution, plus about 4% nominal earnings growth, less roughly 2.5 percentage points from partial convergence toward the modelled median fair-value index of 90.0. The high and rising current income, evidenced by the SEC yield exceeding the 2.83% trailing yield, is the dominant and most reliable component. Dispersion includes unhedged Australian dollar exposure. No calibrated probability is published.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +0.8%
- P10
- -4.0%
Shareholder yield of about 4.4% plus a 3.5% three-year nominal earnings path, less roughly 3 percentage points a year from amortising the fair-value gap. Earnings growth is the slowest of the equity groups here because the index is dominated by a mature banking oligopoly and price-taking resource producers.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +0.4%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual edge of only about 0.4 percentage points over the one-year Treasury. Notably the asset class's own 3.89% current income yield is already below the 4.58% Treasury par yield, so the entire edge depends on earnings growth and the absence of multiple compression.