Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 88.0
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- Last close
- $60.61
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -19.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended because the modelled decomposition and the published long-run forecast disagree materially. The decomposition gives a 2.6% shareholder yield plus roughly 8% nominal earnings growth less about 3 percentage points of partial convergence toward the modelled median fair-value index of 88.0, or around 7.6%. Vanguard's VCMM 10-year emerging-market range of 2.0%-4.0% is the lowest prior among the equity classes and reflects the same stretched starting multiples. The published median is held down toward 5.0% to respect that evidence rather than taking the mechanical figure. No calibrated probability is published.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -6.5%
Shareholder yield of about 2.6% plus a 7% three-year nominal earnings path, less roughly 4 percentage points a year from amortising the fair-value gap. Held at 4.0% in deference to Vanguard's 2.0%-4.0% VCMM 10-year range, which sits below the mechanical decomposition and is the only independent published forecast available for this asset class.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +0.4%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual edge of only about 0.4 percentage points over the one-year Treasury for the highest-volatility equity exposure here, with a modelled 10th percentile of a 19% loss. On this evidence the one-year Treasury offers a competitive expected return with materially lower uncertainty.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 88.0 | $60.61 | +5.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $102.75 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $118.00 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $191.46 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.57 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $42.98 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.17 | — |