US Equities

P90

+23.0%

P75

+14.5%

Median

+6.0%

P25

-3.0%

P10

-13.0%

67% of modeled scenarios end positive.

Shareholder yield of roughly 2.8%, combining the observed 1.06% trailing dividend yield with an estimated 1.75% net buyback contribution, plus about 7.5% nominal forward earnings growth, less roughly 2.1 percentage points from partial convergence toward the modelled median fair-value index of 91.7 at a 25% one-year convergence rate. Dispersion is set from the benchmark's 12.94% three-year standard deviation widened to an annual-return basis with a deliberately fatter left tail reflecting the aggregate-valuation evidence. Vanguard's 4.2%-6.2% VCMM 10-year US equity range is used only as an unconditional sanity check and is not substituted for the conditional estimate. No calibrated probability is published.

P90

+12.5%

P75

+9.0%

Median

+5.2%

P25

+1.0%

P10

-4.0%

Shareholder yield of about 2.8% plus a 6.0% three-year nominal earnings path, after applying the documented 6.2% average start-of-year analyst overestimation as a haircut, less roughly 1.7 percentage points a year from amortising about 60% of the fair-value gap over three years. The result is then held slightly below the mechanical decomposition in deference to the market-value-to-GDP and profits-yield evidence and to Vanguard's lower 10-year prior.