Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 70.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.8
- Upside to median
- -7.2%
- Last close
- $89.15
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
The observed 3.93% index dividend yield plus roughly 4% AFFO growth consistent with 4.1% same-store net operating income growth, less about 2.2 percentage points from partial convergence toward the modelled median fair-value index of 92.8 at a 30% one-year convergence rate. Dispersion is wide because listed REITs are the most rate-sensitive equity-like asset here and the 10-year Treasury sits at a two-decade high, making the rate path two-sided and large relative to the income component. No calibrated probability is published.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
The 3.93% dividend yield plus roughly 4% AFFO growth, less about 2.4 percentage points a year from amortising the full fair-value gap over three years. The income and same-store growth components are the most reliable parts of the estimate, which is why the three-year distribution narrows substantially relative to one year.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual edge of under one percentage point over the one-year Treasury for a leveraged, highly rate-sensitive asset. The index dividend yield of 3.93% is itself 1.33 percentage points below the 5.26% 10-year Treasury, which is the clearest expression of how thin the compensation is.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 92.8 | $89.15 | +5.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.67 | — |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.53 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $87.17 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.41 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.60 | — |