Metals
Today’s price sits at the 61.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.3
- Upside to median
- -6.7%
- Last close
- $379.55
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +0.5%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
51% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price change only; bullion generates no cash flow and incurs a 0.40% annual expense drag in the benchmark vehicle. The median combines an inflation pass-through of roughly 2.3% from the 10-year breakeven with a drag from partial convergence toward the modelled median fair-value index of 93.3, netting to approximately flat. Dispersion reflects the wide realised ranges across the asset class, including the silver sleeve's 42.13 to 107.35 USD 52-week net-asset-value range. No calibrated probability is published.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
Annualised price change only. Over three years the inflation pass-through accumulates while the fair-value gap amortises, lifting the median slightly above the one-year figure. Mine-supply cost inflation provides a soft floor far below the current price and is not treated as valuation support.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -4.1%
- Basis
- direct
A roughly flat modelled one-year median against a certain 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield means Treasuries offer a materially better expected return with far lower uncertainty. Any case for holding metals here rests on portfolio diversification and tail hedging, which is a Portfolio Lens question, not on expected return.