Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 54.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–130 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 94.9
- Upside to median
- -5.1%
- Last close
- $48.56
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +68.0%
- P75
- +32.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Price change only; the asset produces no cash flow, coupon or carry. The median is set from partial convergence toward the modelled median fair-value index of 94.9 against a small positive adoption drift, and is deliberately held close to zero rather than extrapolated from any historical trend. Dispersion is calibrated to the benchmark vehicle's own observed 52-week NAV range of 33.19 to 71.32 USD, which spans more than a two-to-one ratio. Confidence is the lowest in this report and no calibrated probability is published.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
Annualised price change only, widened for the absence of any valuation anchor and narrowed relative to the one-year distribution only by the arithmetic of annualising over three years. Declining post-halving issuance is the single structural support; there is no cash-flow floor of any kind.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -2.6%
- Basis
- direct
The modelled one-year median sits 2.6 percentage points below the certain 4.58% one-year Treasury yield, with a modelled 10th percentile of a 48% loss. On this evidence the Treasury offers a competitive expected return with vastly lower uncertainty.