China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.7
- Upside to median
- -2.3%
- Last close
- $52.28
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +21.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield of roughly 3.5% built from the observed 1.99% trailing distribution yield plus an estimated 1.5% buyback contribution, plus 6% sustainable nominal earnings growth, less a modest drag from partial convergence toward the modelled median fair-value index of 97.7. Dispersion is set from the benchmark's 20.79% three-year standard deviation, the widest of any equity group here, and is deliberately left asymmetric to reflect deflation and capital-access risk. No calibrated probability is published.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Shareholder yield of about 3.5% plus a 5.5% three-year nominal earnings path, with the small residual fair-value gap amortised across three years. Held below the mechanical decomposition because persistent deflation would compress the nominal earnings base that the growth term assumes.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- direct
The largest modelled annual edge over the one-year Treasury in this report, but also the widest return distribution: the modelled 10th percentile is a 24% loss against a certain 4.58% from Treasuries. The edge is compensation for genuine risk, not a free spread.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | -0.2Fair | 97.7 | $52.28 | +6.5% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | -0.2Fair | 97.7 | $33.85 | +6.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | -0.2Fair | 97.7 | $24.58 | +6.5% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | -0.2Fair | 97.7 | $21.77 | +6.5% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $32.65 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.56 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $45.05 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.79 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.07 | — |