Energy
Today’s price sits at the 66.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.6
- Upside to median
- -9.4%
- Last close
- $143.99
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -19.0%
- P10
- -34.0%
44% of modeled scenarios end positive.
For a front-month crude futures vehicle, return equals spot price change plus roll yield. The median is set from the EIA forecast path of Brent falling from roughly 90 US dollars in the second half of 2026 to a 74 dollar average in 2027, partially offset by the possibility that the current tight inventory position keeps the curve in backwardation for part of the year. The forecast inventory rebuild in 2027 is the condition that would flip the curve toward contango and turn the roll yield negative. Dispersion reflects crude's roughly 30% annual volatility. The only negative expected-return median in this report, and no calibrated probability is published.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- -1.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Annualised spot change plus roll yield over three years, centred slightly negative because the EIA path implies a lower average crude price in 2027 than in 2026 and because structural capital discipline supports only a partial recovery thereafter. Producer equities within the asset class carry a materially better three-year profile than the crude benchmark.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -8.6%
- Basis
- direct
The widest negative modelled spread against the one-year Treasury in this report, at roughly 8.6 percentage points. It reflects the published forward crude path plus roll drag on the futures benchmark, not a view on recent price direction, and it does not apply to the producer-equity sleeve of the asset class.