Valuation Lens — October 1, 2026

A 4.58% one-year Treasury is the hurdle every asset must clear: US equities carry a near-zero forward equity risk premium against a 5.26% ten-year yield and record corporate profit share, while Chinese equities, REITs and investment-grade bonds price in materially more compensation.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 1, 2026Last market session Oct 1, 2026Data cutoff Oct 2, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.58%1y Treasury

One-year Treasuries pay 4.58% on an investment basis with a 2.91% ten-year real yield behind them, so every risk asset is competing against an unusually well-paid, low-uncertainty alternative.

10y Treasury: 5.3%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.7
Cheap
Median fair value
113.4101.4–125.7
Upside to median
+13.4%
1y modeled
+9.5%-22.0% to 36.0%
vs Treasury
+4.9%
Real EstateVNQ
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.697.6–113.8
Upside to median
+5.6%
1y modeled
+7.5%-16.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+2.9%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.897.8–105.9
Upside to median
+1.8%
1y modeled
+5.6%-2.5% to 12.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.1
Fair
Median fair value
99.179.1–119.6
Upside to median
-0.9%
1y modeled
+2.0%-48.0% to 62.0%
vs Treasury
-2.6%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.686.6–102.8
Upside to median
-5.4%
1y modeled
+6.5%-15.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
EnergyUSO
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
91.479.4–103.7
Upside to median
-8.6%
1y modeled
+1.5%-30.0% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
-3.1%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.685.6–101.8
Upside to median
-6.4%
1y modeled
+7.0%-14.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+2.4%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
89.579.5–99.8
Upside to median
-10.5%
1y modeled
+5.5%-20.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
MetalsGLD
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
86.474.4–98.7
Upside to median
-13.6%
1y modeled
+1.0%-24.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
-3.6%
US EquitiesSPY
-2.1
Expensive
Median fair value
87.679.6–95.8
Upside to median
-12.4%
1y modeled
+5.0%-17.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+0.4%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.1
Expensive
Median fair value
87.679.6–95.8
Upside to median
-12.4%
1y modeled
+4.0%-18.0% to 20.0%
vs Treasury
-0.6%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-01, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.7 Cheap	113.4 101.4–125.7	+13.4%	+9.5% -22.0% to 36.0%	+4.9%
Real Estate VNQ	+1.1 Somewhat cheap	105.6 97.6–113.8	+5.6%	+7.5% -16.0% to 24.0%	+2.9%
Fixed Income BND	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	101.8 97.8–105.9	+1.8%	+5.6% -2.5% to 12.0%	+1.0%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.1 Fair	99.1 79.1–119.6	-0.9%	+2.0% -48.0% to 62.0%	-2.6%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	94.6 86.6–102.8	-5.4%	+6.5% -15.0% to 23.0%	+1.9%
Energy USO	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	91.4 79.4–103.7	-8.6%	+1.5% -30.0% to 30.0%	-3.1%
Europe Equities VGK	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	93.6 85.6–101.8	-6.4%	+7.0% -14.0% to 24.0%	+2.4%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-1.5 Expensive	89.5 79.5–99.8	-10.5%	+5.5% -20.0% to 27.0%	+0.9%
Metals GLD	-1.6 Expensive	86.4 74.4–98.7	-13.6%	+1.0% -24.0% to 26.0%	-3.6%
US Equities SPY	-2.1 Expensive	87.6 79.6–95.8	-12.4%	+5.0% -17.0% to 22.0%	+0.4%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.1 Expensive	87.6 79.6–95.8	-12.4%	+4.0% -18.0% to 20.0%	-0.6%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.7Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 22.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 50%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+1.1Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 31.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 68% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 53%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 51.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 67.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 69%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 68.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 43%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 80%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 75.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 67%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 77.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 42%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-2.1Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 84.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 85%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.1Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 84.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources18

1
Earnings Insight, September 25, 2026
FactSet Research Systems
2
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — Fund Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
3
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — Fund Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
4
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) — Fund Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
5
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) — Fund Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
6
iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF (IEUR) — Fund Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
7
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) — Fund Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
8
iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) — Fund Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
9
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) — Portfolio Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
10
Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
11
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Central Banks
World Gold Council
12
Strength in REIT Operations Underpins Strong Investment Performance
Nareit
13
Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
U.S. Department of the Treasury
14
Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
15
Gross Domestic Product and Corporate Profits (NIPA)
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
16
Consumer Price Index
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
17
Effective Federal Funds Rate
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
18
National Financial Conditions Index
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_valuation_lens_20261001_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.