Metals
Today’s price sits at the 77.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 86.4
- Upside to median
- -13.6%
- Last close
- $382.76
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Gold produces no cash flow, so the distribution is price change less holding costs. The central path is near zero: continued official-sector demand against the drag of a 2.91% real yield. Reserve-diversification acceleration and a real-yield decline populate the upper tail.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -10.0%
Three-year path anchored on the real gold price reverting part-way toward a level consistent with positive real yields, offset by persistent reserve diversification.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -3.6%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median of 1.0% sits roughly 3.6 points below the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. On valuation and carry grounds the Treasury dominates; gold's role here is insurance against outcomes the Treasury does not hedge.