Energy
Today’s price sits at the 68.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.4
- Upside to median
- -8.6%
- Last close
- $150.02
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -13.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Crude-linked sleeve returns track the official forward price path less roll and holding costs; producer-equity returns combine free cash flow and shareholder yield on normalized oil prices. Supply-disruption risk is carried in the upper tail rather than in the central path.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
Three-year path anchored on marginal production cost and structural capacity rather than on the near-term forecast, with producer shareholder yield compounding through the cycle.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -3.1%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median of 1.5% sits roughly three points below the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. Energy's case here is diversification against supply shocks, not expected return.