Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 84.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 87.6
- Upside to median
- -12.4%
- Last close
- $27.99
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 2.83% distribution yield plus low-to-mid single-digit earnings growth less a valuation-drift term, with commodity-price and currency outcomes supplying the dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.5%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year compounding of distribution income and modest earnings growth with partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -0.6%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median of 4.0% sits below the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. On valuation grounds the hurdle asset wins outright here, with far less uncertainty.