China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 22.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 113.4
- Upside to median
- +13.4%
- Last close
- $52.11
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +36.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Decomposition of a 7.57% reported earnings yield into a 1.99% cash distribution, mid-to-high single-digit local earnings growth and a partial valuation-convergence term, with wide policy-outcome dispersion applied symmetrically around the central path.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -6.0%
Three-year path combining sustainable earnings growth, the current distribution yield and amortized convergence toward the modeled fair-value median, with no assumption of full multiple mean reversion.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +4.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median of 9.5% against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. This is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, and it carries the widest outcome range in the equity cross-section.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.7Cheap | 113.4 | $52.11 | +9.5% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +1.7Cheap | 113.4 | $33.92 | +9.5% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +1.7Cheap | 113.4 | $22.16 | +9.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +1.7Cheap | 113.4 | $25.14 | +9.5% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +1.7Cheap | 113.4 | $15.71 | +9.5% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $32.75 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $44.55 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.33 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.15 | — |