US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 84.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 87.6
- Upside to median
- -12.4%
- Last close
- $763.99
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Decomposition into sustainable earnings growth below the consensus mid-teens pace, roughly 3% shareholder yield from dividends and net buybacks, and a negative valuation-drift term reflecting the gap between a 19.2x forward multiple and the rate-adjusted justified multiple.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year path with earnings growth and shareholder yield partly offset by valuation convergence amortized over the horizon and partial normalization of the record profit share. Full mean reversion is not assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +0.4%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median of 5.0% is barely above the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. Roughly 0.4 points of modeled edge is not meaningful compensation for full equity drawdown risk, and the Treasury offers a competitive expected return with materially lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF US Financial Sector | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $53.46 | +7.5% |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -2.1Expensive | 87.6 | $763.99 | +5.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -2.1Expensive | 87.6 | $508.62 | +5.0% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -2.1Expensive | 87.6 | $209.00 | +5.0% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -2.1Expensive | 87.6 | $279.02 | +5.0% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | -2.1Expensive | 87.6 | $166.20 | +5.0% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -2.1Expensive | 87.6 | $742.03 | +5.0% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -2.6Exceptionally expensive | 82.0 | $168.64 | +3.5% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -2.6Exceptionally expensive | 81.0 | $108.81 | +3.5% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $617.81 | — |