Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 31.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 68% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 105.6
- Upside to median
- +5.6%
- Last close
- $89.17
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution income plus same-store net operating income growth and modest cash-flow-multiple drift, with cap-rate scenarios driven by the ten-year real yield providing the dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year compounding of distribution income and net operating income growth with partial convergence of the cap-rate spread toward its long-run average.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +2.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median of 7.5% against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. Listed real estate carries far more price volatility than the hurdle asset, and a large part of its edge is contingent on cap rates not rising further.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 105.6 | $89.17 | +7.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 105.6 | $40.68 | +7.5% |
| REET Global Real Estate | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 105.6 | $25.59 | +7.5% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 105.6 | $87.68 | +7.5% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 105.6 | $28.17 | +7.5% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $18.00 | — |