Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.6
- Upside to median
- -6.4%
- Last close
- $85.49
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 3.07% distribution yield plus mid-single-digit earnings growth less a modest valuation-drift term, with currency translation carried as dispersion rather than as a central expectation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year compounding of dividend income and sustainable earnings growth with partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median of 7.0% against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. The edge comes mostly from dividend income, which is more durable than multiple expansion but still carries full equity drawdown risk.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 93.6 | $85.49 | +7.0% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 93.6 | $66.15 | +7.0% |
| EWG Germany Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 93.6 | $40.82 | +7.0% |
| EWQ France Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 93.6 | $41.71 | +7.0% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 93.6 | $45.89 | +7.0% |
| EWL Switzerland Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 93.6 | $58.82 | +7.0% |