Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 75.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.5
- Upside to median
- -10.5%
- Last close
- $59.03
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -20.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 1.66% distribution yield plus high-single-digit nominal earnings growth less a valuation-drift term, with semiconductor-cycle and currency outcomes supplying most of the dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year compounding of nominal earnings growth and distributions with partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median; no full multiple mean reversion is assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median of 5.5% against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. Under one point of modeled edge for emerging-market equity volatility is a poor trade-off on valuation grounds alone.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.5Expensive | 89.5 | $59.03 | +5.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | -1.5Expensive | 89.5 | $99.34 | +5.5% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | -1.5Expensive | 89.5 | $112.78 | +5.5% |
| EWY South Korea Index | -1.5Expensive | 89.5 | $186.11 | +5.5% |
| INDA India Index | -1.5Expensive | 89.5 | $46.36 | +5.5% |
| EWZ Brazil Index | -1.5Expensive | 89.5 | $37.14 | +5.5% |
| EZA South Africa Index | -1.5Expensive | 89.5 | $62.86 | +5.5% |