Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.6
- Upside to median
- -5.4%
- Last close
- $97.38
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 3.66% distribution yield plus continuing buybacks, mid-single-digit earnings growth and a modest negative valuation-drift term, with currency translation left unhedged and treated as dispersion rather than as a central expectation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Three-year compounding of shareholder yield and sustainable earnings growth with partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median; no full multiple mean reversion is assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median of 6.5% against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield. For an unhedged dollar investor, roughly two points of modeled edge can be erased by a modest adverse currency move.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJ Japan Broad Market | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 94.6 | $97.38 | +6.5% |
| JPXN Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 94.6 | $103.05 | +6.5% |
| EWJV Japan Value Equity | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 94.6 | $48.02 | +6.5% |
| SCJ Japan Small-Cap Equity | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 94.6 | $108.84 | +6.5% |
| DXJ Japan Hedged Equity | —Unavailable | — | $179.73 | — |